According to Taiwan industrial and commercial times reports: Li Zhicun of president of stage model company expressed a few days ago, international oil price will return visit 100 dollars close greatly, now as expected call the turn, oil price resembles not only is to sit next defeat like smooth slide, still drive include the model such as ethylene, propylene to change prices to go drop, the propylene spot price of area of this week far east is more 310 dollars were written below the mouth, be expected to reduce model to influence trade cost. However, bright, plant of ethylene of the year after next appears in great quantities, li Zhicun also is forecasted already, market supply exceeds demand will cause the price malign competition, old plant of alone whole world if can reduction of output reduces supply, will shorten the time that the market shuffles, market may not is like the pessimism in the imagination.
　　
Be walked along by oil price drop, and boom is behaved not the market demand that beautiful affects model to turn goods, because answer,model turns reduction in production of downstream there's no one who doesn't or isn't, create supply exceeds demand of raw material market; Spot price of ethylene of far east area drops continuously since July, every metric ton leaves this week again write 80 dollars, and propylene price more weigh defeat considerably, every metric ton drops greatly 310 dollars, reach every metric ton 1, 199 to 1, the price of 201 dollars, challenge downward at the beginning of March when every metric ton 1, the low of 130 dollars.
　　
Li Zhicun is at the beginning of July anticipate, oil price can go quickly inside short time drop, because answer,reduce inventory because this model company is interior already actively, the hope can reduce prices to fluctuate considerably brings concussion. And the person that model changes job also points out, if oil price is down sound foundation again, include price of ethylene, propylene to still have next repaired spaces, influence place and, the price of raw material contract September also will glide accordingly, be expected to reduce model to change the expenses of raw material cost of course of study.
　　
At present the contract price of domestic propylene is every metric ton about 1500 dollars, the person that model changes job points out, the contract price September has not left piece, but fall considerably from prices of merchandise on hand long, and below the influence that crude price still glides continuously, propylene contract price should write about 100 dollars below organic meeting in September.
　　
Besides wanting to face former stock prices to change, be about to be in bright, the year after next opens ethylene of and other places of the middle east that go out, China to produce in great quantities in succession can, it is a when the person that model changes job will face namely tough fight more. Bright, the supply quantity of ethylene of whole world of the year after next will increase considerably, crop was added newly 2009 amount to 8.5 million metric ton, add newly 2010 amount to 8.939 million metric ton, than market demand every the year's harvest grows about 4.5 million metric ton, fully nearly 1 times more.
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